Waiting for the Fourth of July
Today was an up day with minimal pullbacks, but it certainly looks like more consolidation on a longer term chart. Starting with a 45 minute time frame (today is only the last nine bars) we stalled at a downtrend line just as we reached a possible “C” top at 62% of the “A” move.
That’s the normal turning point for a weak move, and notice the declining volume. Of course a breakout tomorrow morning would change this pattern, but it will be a shortened trading day followed by the holiday on Wednesday.
I have a tendency to distrust the setups around a holiday, but usually when I look back at them later they will often work just as well as during normal trading periods.
On the trading chart (3 minutes) there was a pullback after the gap opening, followed by an up to sideways day — profitable if you could figure out a safe entry. I don’t really see one unless you took the break above the first bar’s high. The external retracement of the lunchtime pullback turned at 162%, just as we hit the downtrend line on the longer chart.
Unless something surprising happens tomorrow I probably won’t post a commentary.
