Waiting for the Fourth of July

Today was an up day with minimal pullbacks, but it certainly looks like more consolidation on a longer term chart. Starting with a 45 minute time frame (today is only the last nine bars) we stalled at a downtrend line just as we reached a possible “C” top at 62% of the “A” move.Waiting for the Fourth - 45

That’s the normal turning point for a weak move, and notice the declining volume. Of course a breakout tomorrow morning would change this pattern, but it will be a shortened trading day followed by the holiday on Wednesday.

I have a tendency to distrust the setups around a holiday, but usually when I look back at them later they will often work just as well as during normal trading periods.Waiting for the Fourth

On the trading chart (3 minutes) there was a pullback after the gap opening, followed by an up to sideways day — profitable if you could figure out a safe entry. I don’t really see one unless you took the break above the first bar’s high. The external retracement of the lunchtime pullback turned at 162%, just as we hit the downtrend line on the longer chart.

Unless something surprising happens tomorrow I probably won’t post a commentary.

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4 Responses to Waiting for the Fourth of July

  1. John says:


    I’m always intrigued at how you draw your trendlines. Would you share how to determine at which pivot points to start drawing your trendlines and trading channels, in real time trading?

    Thanks in advance

  2. John says:


    Thank you for sharing that info.

    Today I had good luck in trading your method. Today on the ER2 I believed I had a good trading channel with anchored lines from 7/04 10:15cst high to 7/05 09:00cst high.

    When the ER rejected the trading channel at 7/05 9:33cst and the $tick posted extremes of +800 but failed to hit $tick extremes of +1000 I took a short position.

    Well, I rode the trade to the bottom of the trading channel where the $tick then hit -800 at 10:00cst.

    See, you can teach an old dog new tricks :)

    Thanks again,

  3. Pingback: Trading What I See - … one trade at a time » Trendline Resistance Becomes Support

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