For those having trouble accessing the site yesterday, evidently the server holding Trading What I See was having high load issues. It took me several hours to post yesterday’s comments. When I checked, the web host was working on the problem. My access seems much faster today, so perhaps it is solved.
Lowell
Today the Russell 2000 had the fifth narrowest range so far this year — 5.9 points. And that range occurred right at the top of the daily rectangle. Actually this could be good news.
When price makes a continuous move from deep inside a pattern and then immediately breaks out, the odds favor a failure. Too much of the rally strength has been expended inside the pattern. However when there is a pause near a pattern’s edge, then a high-volume breakout is much more likely to succeed. But right now I’m waiting to actually see that breakout before I get excited on the upside.
Not much else to say on today’s action. We turned up at a Measured Move (C=100%) and developed a triangle formation. However the breakout had no volume behind it, and price reversed just above yesterday’s high before coming anywhere close to the triangle target. Not surprising with the lack of volume.
Another indication of the slow trading. The NYSE Tick ($Tick) never hit either a plus or minus 1000 today. I only watch the Tick at critical points, but most days one direction or the other will have some bias. And I would expect to see a high reading there when we finally break from this consolidation pattern. Maybe Monday.
