Trading What I See

There are several types of trend day, some easier to trade than others. Let’s start with the overall picture (15 minute chart), and then look for potential entries on the trading chart.

After the gap opening the market pushed right through the 162% level of a larger A-B-C. Whether measuring external retracements of the first pullback or the “C” leg of an A-B-C, passing the 162% level is where I stop looking for a reversal setup.

The next stop is often the 262% Fibonacci level, and that’s where we reversed at the end of the day. We’re back at the top of the daily rectangle, where we reversed four days ago. Was this a Spring reversal? We exceeded the top price from the rectangle by one tick.

I would be cautious of a gap up tomorrow that quickly reversed, but a continuation of the closing pullback followed by an upside breakout with volume could head for the rectangle target over 30 points higher.

Did I just say we could go either way? Don’t I always? Let’s see what happens in the morning.

Now, how could you have caught this move? First remember the quote from Victor Sperandeo that I’ve used often.

If there is a gap, and it is going to reverse, it will do so 10 to 15 minutes after the opening 95 percent of the time.

By the first pullback this morning we had exceeded a potential 162% A-B-C which means you should expect continuation. We had also exceeded Trader Vic’s 15 minutes without a reversal. Two reasons to look for upside action, so what we needed was a usable entry.

For entries in a trend I usually look for a bounce off the bottom of a parallel trend channel, or a pullback to a Fibonacci level measured from a major pivot. It didn’t take very long to realize that neither of these two methods would work this morning. So instead, I used the opening price to start my measurements.

From “A” to “B” was a 62% retracement, but the next three hours progressed so slowly it made the trade seem like a mistake. Without any good basing points my procedure is to gradually move my stop up with each new pivot (yellow lines), with an exit shortly after “C=100%.”

After that slow 5+ point rally, I was surprised by the afternoon move and didn’t even consider an entry. But at least we are out of the sideways action of the last two days. Tomorrow we’ll see what happens with the rectangle.

After opening with a small gap above yesterday’s high, the market immediately reversed on the first one minute bar and closed the gap (not shown.) That looked like a Spring setup, but there was no confirmation — no Fibonacci level or divergence for the top.

The next two minutes reversed the reversal, and then the market topped out at the 127% Fibonacci external retracement. For those new to the site, that’s a measurement that retraces more than 100% of the previous move, shown on this chart with white arrows early in the morning and again in the afternoon.

Any time the market exceeds a previous pivot you should mark off the 127% and 162% external retracements, since these are the two most likely levels for a quick reversal. If we exceed 162% that’s a good indication that the move will continue for a while.

The turn at the high created another Spring setup as we broke through yesterday’s resistance but immediately reversed. This time the reversal occurred at 127% so there were two reasons to enter a short sale. If you missed that entry, the pullback at “B” was at a 50% retracement of the early decline. I like to enter after Dunnigan blue reversal bars if there is another good reason, since that often acts much like the Spring setup.

An A-B-C pattern (shown in blue) will often turn at 62%, 100%, or 162%. The two bar hesitation at 7:30 was at 62%, but there was no actual bounce. We went through 100% without a pause, and finally made the low of the day at 162%. Nice morning trading.

For the next four hours I can’t find an entry I like. I expect early pullbacks to be 50% or greater, but it never happened. I have a nice parallel trend channel marked in yellow, but without an entry you can’t trade it.

But it does point out the afternoon top, which is also a 162% external retracement and another refusal to move upwards after again breaking yesterday’s high. Not as clear as the morning reversal, but I would still consider it a Spring.

You might take a look at the daily chart before tomorrow’s open. We’re back at the high of a rectangle that has lasted over a month. For longer term traders tomorrow might be decision time.

Returning on a Fed day doesn’t make for exciting trading. As you might expect, I marked off the first hour range and then joined a lot of other traders waiting for a good breakout that never happened. I think perhaps summer trading is finally here.

With the lack of action, I’m just posting a daily chart showing the limits of recent movements. April and May formed a rectangle, and now at the end of June we have another. However, as yesterday’s trend day demonstrates, you can still get a good move even when the larger pattern is basically sideways. It just takes a lot more patience during slow trading periods.

With the market closed next Wednesday for the Forth of July holiday there may be a lack of activity for the next several days. Because of this my posts, as today, may be a little short. If you are trading, be sure to wait for clear setups.

Evidently the 127% external retracement was the correct turning point from yesterday’s close. But remember, there were too many other potential reversal levels. If that had happened intraday it was only a trade to consider with extreme caution.

After a gap and a 50% retracement, the market completed a small A-B-C (red) for a Measured Move. The next three hours created a sideways pattern that eventually turned into a rectangle. Although it takes four touches (two on each side) to confirm a rectangle, each touch of the top was on less volume. That’s a strong hint that a consolidation pattern is forming, and a rectangle was a likely possibility starting just after 9:30 (Pacific time.)

Rectangles can go on for a long time, but remember the importance of forgotten trendlines or trendlines drawn from the first small pullback. At the second bottom marked “B” price bounces from that trendline and then makes a volume breakout from the rectangle. The market didn’t even slow down at the rectangle target (width of the pattern), but went to the 100% Measured Move of the larger formation to make the high of the day.

There were three close targets for the high — the yellow parallel (not quite hit), yesterday’s high (green line) and the C=100% blue target. Unlike yesterday’s close, two of the three were exact hits, and the third was close. Certainly a point for partial profits if not a complete exit.

Take a look at the earliest pivot marked “B.” That was certainly a potential entry, and although it’s hard to call it a successful trade, it shouldn’t have been a loser. I’m often an impatient trader, and my exit would have been during the sideways action in the center of the rectangle.

If you had more patience, the false break to a new high should have been an exit. Compare that action to the Spring pattern that often appears on my charts. A break to a new high for any move must have a volume increase to be trustworthy. Any reversal after a low volume breakout should be considered as a potential exit signal.

I’ll be on the road all day tomorrow, so there is the possibility I won’t manage a post in the evening. If not, I should be back on Friday. Good Trading.
Lowell

Whenever I enter a position, after setting a protective stop loss I begin looking for my first exit level. My compromise between getting out too early and holding a position too long is to trade multiple contracts.

Sometimes finding a logical point to take some profits can be difficult. I don’t automatically exit at Fib or support/resistance levels, but use them as areas to watch price closely for reversal indications. And sometimes I’ll use points that others may not consider “correct.”

After a nice Spring setup just after the open (complete with a Stochastic divergence), price re-visited a resistance area created yesterday, making a third reversal at exactly the same level. Although there is only a single bottom pivot, I’ll probably start to treat this area as a potential rectangle.

A “correct” rectangle will have at least two pivots at both top and bottom, but notice what happens when the bottom support breaks. There is an immediate pullback to that support, just as often happens with a “real” rectangle. If you’re willing to trade “almost” patterns, that pullback was a nice entry for a short sale.

For those not familiar with the quote used as today’s title, here is a more complete version:

If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, you can be reasonably sure it is a duck.

For my trading the same thing applies to rectangles, triangles, and many other patterns. If it acts like a rectangle, I’ll certainly mark off a rectangle measurement for a target even though it doesn’t meet all the normal requirements.

And that rectangle target is where we got a nice reversal today. We eventually moved somewhat lower, but first targets don’t necessarily mean the end of a move. But they are certainly good places to take partial profits.

One of the most difficult things about discretionary trading is deciding how much leeway to give patterns and levels. If you are just starting out, my suggestion is to require very strict adherence to the “rules”, but after you have analyzed thousands of charts you’ll begin to see more “almost” patterns and discover that they often work.

My apologies to those on the east coast, but the blog entries for the next few days will probably be posted quite late.

I’ve mentioned a number of times how the 162% external retracement determines the way I look at the short term trend. When the market rallies or declines I usually mark a potential reversal zone between the 127% and 162% retracements of the last rally or decline.

If we can get beyond 162% I assume the trend has actually changed. Today was an example of this situation. Yesterday’s low held for the first hour, and then we temporarily broke down. At first glance this might look like a Spring, but for that particular setup I expect the reversal to happen almost immediately. Today we broke below the low and traded there for an hour and a half.

But notice that we also broke a two day downtrend line (blue.) As will often happen, price pulled back to that line. I want first pullbacks after a potantial trend change to exceed 50%, and this one did, so any reversal trigger could be bought. After we resumed the uptrend, the 162% Fib level comes into play.

When price reached the 162% external retracement of that first pullback it looked like another reversal had set up. At this point I might exit at least part of any position I was holding, but without a divergence or some additional evidence of a turn I would probably not sell everything. Remember that the market will usually make some sort of hesitation at any important Fib level even if it is going to continue.

In yellow I have arrows marking the 78% pullback and it’s external retracement. After the hesitation, price finally exceeded the 162% level. Whether I’m in a trade or not, my bias is now up.

After we finally reach the top at 11:15 (Pacific) the market makes a small A-B-C pullback. It turns out to be a Measured Move, and also retraces 38% of the last large rally. I see this as a fairly strong buy area because we have exceeded the 162% level. Drawing the upper yellow trendline allows me to have three reasons for a buy — an A-B-C, a 38% Fib pullback, and hitting the yellow parallel trendline.

Of course if you entered at the 78% pullback you might still have a partial position through the end of the day.

We’ve ended the day at another 162% external retracement (blue arrows.) It’s a logical place for a pullback, but until we break out of that Daily rectangle I really consider the larger trend sideways, which means taking setups in either direction.

There was certainly not much of trading interest today, so I’ll keep this short. A small opening gap led to a tight congestion area at “A.” It was only after price pulled away from this range that you could see the potential for an A-B-C pattern. Which means it was probably too late to trade it.

Of interest is my confirming blue trendline that helped pick the “C” top. Most Technical Analysis books tell me I can’t draw trendlines through price data (this one was drawn between points “1″ and “2″), but I do it all the time. Here are my rules.

When I draw a trendline that passes through price, I usually want it to cross at the 50% level of that price pulse. That means I actually have three anchor points for the trendline — point “1″, the 50% mark of the price move, and point “2.” I probably won’t notice this potential trendline until price approaches point “3″, but you can see how nicely the market reversed there yesterday.

I only use this kind of trendline for confirmation of turns — not for entry setups by itself. And as I’ve said many times, once I have a valid trendline on my chart I try to leave it there until price starts ignoring it. The reversal at point “C” shows why.

The week ended with a rectangle that I considered too small to trade. But again, that is just personal preference. Until we get some direction on the daily chart, small moves are all we can expect.